… And the winner is …
There still could be a November Shock I guess but I’m going in early to call this election for Vice President Kamala Harris.
I know everyone says this is the closest election of the century, and maybe in history. I think it’s definitely the closest polling we’ve every seen from the national polls to the swing state polls.
I think the Vice President will win bigger than the polls show though, and win in a way that it shouldn’t be contested.
But, as we all know, ex-President Donald Trump could lose in a popular vote and electoral vote landslide and still claim victory. He’s already telling us he expects Pennsylvania to be his battleground for the post-election war he will declare.
Why do I think this will be a bigger win than the polls show?
Because, well, women. Women are for Harris big time. Yes, men are for Trump bigly too, but there are more women. There are definitely more motivated women after Trump removed their right to choose by appointing the Supreme Court judges who ended Roe v. Wade. Not to mention the last couple days when he promised to “protect the women…whether they want me to or not.”
I think women have had it with Trump.
Let’s just call bullshit on the old “now the states can decide on abortion” argument. This is an issue that needs to be — and was — decided nationally and is being so again as states vote. Just far more slowly.
Women, and men, can have their religious view on abortion and run their lives that way. It’s a free country. And so can men and women have the opposite view because, well, the Constitution gives us freedom of religion.
Plus, no matter that some in the Christian right think this needs to be a Christian nation — the Constitution says otherwise. Be a Christian. Let me be Jewish, Muslim, or agnostic or another religion. That’s why we live in America. We are free to be what we choose.
There are other reasons I think this will be a bigger win for Harris than anticipated.
While much is made by the media about her losing ground among Black Americans, I think Black Americans will come back to her more. Plus, few mention those men without college degrees. Trump has lost significant ground in his lead among them. And, remember, there are lots of men in that category, which means bigger numbers.
If that trend holds, Trump will lose ground especially in those Democratic Blue Wall states.
Another reason I think Harris will win bigger than anticipated: Donald J. Trump.
His act is over. Yes, there is still almost half the country who supports him. That’s largely because, in my view anyway, he is still that middle finger that half of the country understandably gives to the establishment. He doesn’t care what he says or who he angers by saying it. I get that many like that about him. He says things they can’t, or won’t.
They feel they have been forgotten, lost in the shuffle of government priorities, and political priorities.
Many of them have been forgotten, and they won’t be again after this election. In that sense, they win by Harris winning. She and the government must pay attention to that segment of America not just because they want to win back their votes — but because they deserve to have the establishment’s attention, and action.
Another reason I think she’ll win is because Puerto Rican voters will break for Harris after last weekend’s tribute by the Trump campaign to the Nazi approach. There, I said it.
Do I think Trump is a Nazi? No, but I think he sure likes the rhetoric used by fascist regimes. Do I think Trump wants to kill Jews and illegal immigrants? No, I don’t.
But I think he will use the hell out of the issue if that’s what returns him to power.
If it didn’t suit that purpose, he would not be so all over it. All he cares about is winning — for himself.
For example, his trip yesterday to campaign in New Mexico, a state he won’t win. Why was he there? To try to secure Latino votes. What did he say there? “New Mexico, look, don’t make me waste a whole damn half a day here,” he said. Yes, New Mexico voters, it’s about him, not you.
Then there are his creepy loyalists. Like Stephen Miller, and Steve Bannon, and Rudy Giuliani and Tucker Carlson. These are dangerous men. I won’t go into all the reasons here.
While Tim Walz got on the Harris ticket partly because he called the Trump team “weird” he could have gone a few steps further — those four and others are creepy and mean and crude men.
It’s the type of “loyal” staff that Trump attracts. And likes.
The rhetoric Trump uses is fascist rhetoric. It is aimed at getting his party united behind him (mission accomplished), loyal staffers around him (mission accomplished) and many of his followers willing to take him at his word (mission pretty much accomplished).
Look at fascist societies in the world and study a bit how a charismatic leader jumped ahead of the parade to lead them. And get the people to believe him, and only him.
Some may have been short-lived reigns and they clearly were among the worst governments in human history. Good for the “leaders.” Bad for the people.
Then, there is the other side. Harris gave a great speech the other day on the Ellipse. It was written well, structured well, and covered not only who she is but what she believes in. Did she define Trump as she wants to define him? Yes, as she needed to do too.
Harris has been a candidate for President for about 100 days.
She squashed a lot into those days: secured the nomination, named a staff, vetted and named a vice presidential candidate, created a platform, did the vice-presidential dance of being loyal to the man who nominated her as Vice President, raised a billion dollars, and more.
That’s a pretty good 100 days, not to mention making this the “closest race” in history instead of a Trump walk.
She also did the same balancing act other vice presidents have done — from both parties — throughout our history: Being loyal to the person who nominated her and still trying to forge her own way.
Ironically, President Biden handed her the way to do that when he stuttered (no pun intended) in his take on that comic at Trump’s Madison Square Garden rally who insulted Puerto Rico and Puerto Ricans. That gave her the opportunity to delineate a difference without tossing her boss under the bus. And she took advantage of it.
That whole “she was last person on the room thus she is guilty of all the Biden Administration mistakes or policies that didn’t work?” Bull. You may get in the last word, but you may not carry the day. Being the last person in the room with your parents didn’t give you veto power over their decision, did it? She was listened to. That was Biden’s promise. That was Reagan’s promise to Bush too. He didn’t always agree — he is the President, not Harris.
Did she agree publicly after she left that room? Yes, as is her job.
So high numbers of women are highly motivated to vote this year. That oversimplifies it. There are also hundreds of thousands of Puerto Rican voters in those key states, and they were listening to that rally the other night, or heard about it — quickly. Oh, and those Haitians accused of “eating the dogs…eating the pets” … motivated.
Not to mention, but I will:
- Trump’s candidate for vice president, JD Vance, said the other day: Well-off kids may be identifying as trans to get into elite colleges. Oh, and he and Trump could win the “normal gay guy vote.”
- And, was Trump referring to a firing squad or the enemy when he said of Liz Cheney last night: “She’s a radical war hawk — let’s put her with a rifle standing there with nine barrels shooting at her. OK? And let’s see how she feels about it, you know, when the guns are trained on her face.”
So, just thinking that with a younger generation of candidate being put forward, with specific plans for what she’ll do — plans that won’t destroy our economy like putting taxes on every imported good we buy and cutting taxes for the wealthy — this may not be the closest race we’ve ever seen.
