Harris changes the dynamic
With the Democratic Convention two days away, the election has been totally changed since Vice President Kamala Harris took over the top slot on the ticket.
Not that she’s a winner.
Yet.
This was always going to be a close election, until that horrible debate performance by President Biden. And Harris, now, has turned it back into a close election.
In May, for example, The New York Times/Siena poll showed former President Trump leading then-candidate Biden by 6 points in Arizona, 9 in Georgia and 13 in Nevada. With Biden bowing out and Harris taking over, the presidential race has returned to normal — a dead heat in those states. At that rate, Trump might need to take Georgia, North Carolina and Arizona to win in November.
The electoral map has changed dramatically in just a matter of weeks. The Democrats’ electoral options have expanded.
This is why Trump refers to the Harris-for-Biden switch-a-roo as a “coup.” He knows he’s in a race now, while before he was waltzing back to the Oval Office.
It’s a “coup” in his mind not against Biden, but against Trump. He, once again, is the victim, his preferred role in life. (“It’s a witch hunt;” “It was a perfect phone call;” “I did nothing wrong!”)
It’s not a waltz anymore. And Harris isn’t dancing backwards. And he knows it.
And he needs someone to blame who isn’t named Donald J. Trump.
This is why Trump is having trouble finding attacks against Harris. He’s not playing against the same team. Harris’ team is more up on the intricacies of online battles; quicker to respond and take a position to answer in Tik Tok time when something happens. Faster with a quip. More eager to make light of Trump than to take him seriously.
His nicknames are not catching on like before.
Harris has brought a new vibe to the campaign. Big crowds are returning to hear her. Reactions are boisterous. Excitement has returned.
As her vice presidential candidate, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, put it, she put “joy” back in politics.
The money is pouring in.
Can she keep it up?
That’s the question.
The assumption is the convention will be successful for her, most of course are. Though this one has been rebuilt in less than a month, a huge endeavor. She has demonstrated the respect Joe Biden has earned as President.
Monday night of the convention is all about Joe. He deserves that, at minimum.
How much pulling out of the race hurt him personally can only be assumed. Assume it still hurts, a lot. But, he did it. He put country before self — once again proving he is at least twice the person Trump is. Make that multiple times the person.
Trump couldn’t step aside or blame himself for anything. This is why he’s trying to find the attack target to misdirect any blame/responsibility from himself.
It’s what he does. It’s what he’s always done — his entire phony life.
He’s having trouble landing a punch. It’s almost as if, besides from his strong base, the country is moving on from Trumpism and he can’t figure out how to stop it. He’s even trying the “she’s a Communist” approach.
Now it’s more about Kamala than Trump. (Side note: I was going to talk more about why we seem to use first names for female candidates — Hillary, Nancy — and last names for men but, nah. Kamala has become her “brand” as they say these days — more power to her. Young people especially respect that. And Trump reinforces it as he continues to intentionally mispronounces her name. Another out-of-date, childish tactic.)
Polls also are showing down-ticket contests (House, Senate) back to close races and that means Harris is being taken seriously. Remember, sage Nancy Pelosi was reacting largely because she saw the House totally slipping away from even possible Democratic takeover with Biden at the top of the ticket. That’s when she entered the game and gets big credit for Biden seeing the light, even though she has seriously damaged her decades old friendship with Biden. At least for now.
That’s putting country ahead of party and friends. It will take a long time for Biden to get over it but he will and realize she and he did the right thing.
Harris is polling above 50 percent in many districts where Democratic candidates were in trouble before her taking over the ticket. That puts many of those seats back in play for Democrats. If you don’t believe that, ask a Republican House member in one of those districts for a candid observation (which may be an oxymoron in Republican language these days).
As old Democratic strategic genius James Carville said, Democrats have gone from a convention “sitting Shiva” to a joyful party with Kamala topping the ticket.
It ain’t over but it’s a contest again.
