Tonight’s debate: Huge but expect small poll changes

Tonight’s first, and likely only debate, between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris will not move mountains in the various polls, which are still showing a very tight election.

But I don’t imagine either Trump or Harris expects, at this stage, to win in a landslide. The country is divided almost equally between Trump supporters and Harris voters, though just as clearly the polls have put Harris back into a “the Democrats really can win” posture since President Biden exited the race.

What to expect tonight? Good question!

No one really knows but I’ll make a few guesses (which means they were guesses if I’m wrong) and predictions (which mean I was proven correct).

While Trump’s advisors are trying to protect him by arguing the microphones must be muted, Trump will not be mute. I mean, can he really?

So he likely still will be saying stupid, unfiltered things. It’s just we, the TV audience may not hear him clearly.

But Harris will hear him. Her one-line comebacks in those situations will depend on whether they are heard in the context of something he just said. An unknown.

My guess is she will have a one-liner prepared for just such an occurrence when he is trying to talk over her.

Overall, Harris will be prepared, there is no doubt. That is what prosecutors do, they prepare. Trump will not be as prepared because that is what Trump, who believes he’s the smartest person on the room, does — not prepare.

Who will “win” the debate? I think Harris will but remember that the goal is not to move tens of millions of voters. The vast majority of voters are not movable. They already are on one team or the other.

The target audience is those in the middle, where presidential elections are decided. And, if a significant number of those voters are moved by tonight’s debate, they’ll only show in the after-debate polls as small movement, maybe a couple of points.

Holding those couple of points over the remaining weeks of the campaign will be the key.

Trump needs to keep reminding people of how good they think the country was, economically and otherwise, while he was president.

Harris needs to keep telling people who she is and what she stands for because polls show she is still an unknown.

Pollster and political expert Frank Luntz said on TV today that Harris needs to stop saying her “values haven’t changed” because what the heck does that mean anyway? She does need, he said, to explain why she has changed positions, which she has, on things like fracking.

As Luntz said, as human beings we all change over time on many issues. Because we listen, we pay attention to others, and we change. That is what leaders do listen to people.

Trump doesn’t do any of those things. Harris should admit it and explain her flip-flops came from listening to other people, thinking and adapting her personal views. It will explain her position changes and reinforce that Trump doesn’t like to admit, ever, that he’s wrong about anything.

Anyway, pop your popcorn, prepare — no matter whose side you’re on — to yell at the TV set and prepare for no major change in the polls because no major change is coming, but small change — either way — is really what’s important after tonight.