Where the election (might) stand

If you try to analyze the Electoral College numbers to see where the presidential race stands, well, you could go blind. I tried. Here’s what I learned.

I reviewed a state-by-state poll review by The New York Times this week. The Times used at least two state polls from each state. Some were more than a week or two old. But, if you take those polls as they existed and averaged them, Vice President Joe Biden wins the Electoral College with 373 votes. That, though, includes states where the compilations show him with large leads (for example New York where he registers 57 percent of the vote) to states where he has tiny leads (for example North Carolina where he leads by a single point).

If you subtract out the close states (Texas, North Carolina, Florida, Iowa, Nevada), Biden’s electoral count drops but still wins at 279 votes (270 are needed).

If you just subtract the three close states President Trump won four years ago, those states credited him with winning the election for him (Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania) and assume Trump wins then again, Biden still wins with 333 electoral votes.

As you can see, you can go blind. And, in any event, those polls were good for when they were taken. Which means they matter not.

We read and hear lots of analysis from the pundits and alleged experts, most of them claiming Biden is way ahead.

Allan Lichtman, a professor who is perfect in his predictions of the presidential election for…